HONOLULU (KHON2) - A slight change in weather conditions will occur Sunday through Monday night, as a weak tropical wave passes from east to west to the south of the islands.
Low-level forcing from this feature will lift temperature inversion heights into the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range and help drag an area of increased precipitable water through through the islands, allowing for more unstable clouds and increasing shower trends.
The best chances for enhanced shower activity will be over the windward and mountain areas Sunday and Monday nights/early mornings.
Some of the stronger showers may move into the typically drier leeward locations at times.
A brief drop in the trade wind speeds remains in the forecast for Monday and Monday night as a passing front near the Aleutians briefly displaces the high north of Hawaii off to the east a bit.
Global models indicate a fairly stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather pattern prevailing through much of the rest of the week.
However, there remains a large degree of uncertainty in the wind and weather patterns heading into next weekend due to potential tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific, east of Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the East Pacific over the next seven days with westward movement into the Central Pacific by the end of next week.
However, the GFS and ECMWF long-range model guidance differ significantly in the existence, position, and strength of activity near Hawaii.
Specific island forecast details from Friday onward will highly depend upon this potential tropical development.
The combination of an upcoming full moon Monday and water levels running around a half a foot higher than predicted levels may produce minor coastal flooding during the times of afternoon high tide the next couple of days.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.