HONOLULU (KHON2) - Localized gentle land and sea breezes have ruled many communities' late week diurnal wind patterns in the absence of stronger large scale flow.
These breezes have produced more efficient cloud growth and shower development over better wind- protected leeward and interior areas such as Big Island's Kona regions.
As surface high pressure gradually strengthens and drifts westward north of the state the next couple of days, the tighter pressure gradient back toward the islands will result in a return of more areawide breezy trades.
Recent spotty brushfires are a reminder of the recently dry statewide conditions.
Below normal rainfall and higher seasonable temperatures have resulted in an increase of drought coverage and intensity since the early July.
The majority of the islands are under moderate drought conditions with southern Maui (east of Maalaea Bay) experiencing extreme drought.
Recent afternoon minimum relative humidities have consistently been falling below 50% during the heat of the day.
One of the fire weather indices such as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KDBI) is a tool that is used to better determine the fire weather threat.
This index has been on the rise and will likely exceed fire weather threat thresholds by the end of August.
This index employs such factors as locally drying fuels, strong winds and lower relative humidities that, in combination, all lead to enhancing the fire weather threat within a drought.
There are slightly higher probabilities that next week will be a touch more wet in relation to this past dry week.
Weak upper level troughing begins to develop northeast of the area into mid week. Lowering heights may lead to a subtly less stable environment.
Bands of higher mid-level moisture advection within stronger trades Sunday (and then again from Tuesday onward) is a hopeful signal that a more wet pattern is coming that may provide brief relief from the dryness.
Remnant moisture from the once T.C. Emilia in the East Pacific may move through late Wednesday into early Thursday and this boost in moisture could produce more areawide rain.
While thicker clouds and higher shower frequency will still favor windward and mauka areas in this typical summertime trade wind regime, occasional showers may make it over the ridgetops and briefly wetten leeward communities.
A drier air mass is expected to follow at the end of the upcoming work week.